From Heat Demand to Engagement: Mapping Socio-Technical Conditions for Urban Energy Planning

An Exploratory, Multi-Scale Statistical Assessment of Heating System Age and Heat Demand Across Socio-Cultural Milieus

Abstract

Understanding socio-spatial patterns of heating infrastructure is essential for designing effective strategies for the decarbonisation of urban residential energy systems. This paper investigates the relationship between socio-cultural milieus, heating system age, and heat demand using a multi-scale empirical analysis for the city of Bremen, Germany. The study integrates building-level Sinus-Milieu data with detailed heating system information and population statistics, enabling a comparative assessment at both the individual building level and a standardised 100 m × 100 m grid level.

Non-parametric statistical methods are applied to examine differences between Sinus-Milieus with respect to heating system age and heat demand. The results reveal robust and statistically significant differences in heating system age across milieus, with large effect sizes observed at both spatial aggregation levels. These differences can be meaningfully condensed into two stable groups, distinguishing milieus with predominantly moderate heating system ages from those with elevated renovation needs. In contrast, while absolute heat demand differs significantly between milieus, these differences largely disappear once heat demand is normalised by population at the grid level. Effect sizes for population-normalised heat demand are negligible, indicating that observed differences in absolute heat demand are primarily driven by structural factors such as building size, density, and population distribution rather than by milieu-specific heating behaviour.

By combining socio-cultural segmentation with spatially explicit energy data, the paper demonstrates the value of a multi-scale analytical approach for identifying structurally relevant patterns of renovation need. The findings highlight heating system age as a particularly robust indicator for targeting urban heat transition policies, while cautioning against the uncritical interpretation of absolute heat demand differences between socio-cultural groups.