Industrial Electrification Potential for Decarbonization in Quebec

Abstract

Electrification of Quebec’s industrial sector is a key decarbonization pathway in the context of its already low-carbon electricity supply. This study assesses the electrification potential of thirteen energy-intensive sub-sectors: primary aluminum, pulp and paper, steel, cement, alumina, lime, petroleum refining, iron ore mining and pelletizing, gold and silver mining, chemicals, agrifood, non-ferrous metals refining and smelting, and wood products. Based on a bottom-up analysis of fossil fuel consumption by process and equipment based on 2019 data, and an evaluation of electro-technology applicability as a function of process temperature, two scenarios are examined: a techno-optimistic scenario assuming full electrification regardless of technology maturity, and a high-TRL scenario limited to commercially available or near-commercial solutions. Low- and medium-temperature processes (<700 °C) show high electrification potential using mature technologies such as heat pumps, electric boilers, and resistance heating, whereas high-temperature processes depend on more capital-intensive and process-specific solutions, including electric furnaces, plasma technologies, and hydrogen-based pathways. In the techno-optimistic scenario, fossil fuel consumption, GHG emissions, and electricity use change by -85%, -51%, and +53%, respectively for the thirteen sub-sectors, while in the high-TRL scenario they change by -44%, -21%, and +28% respectively. The associated annual energy cost increases are estimated at C$656 million and C$254 million for the two scenarios, respectively. Overall, electrification requires major investments in electro-technologies and their process integration, and electricity generation and transmission infrastructure; it can substantially reduce GHG emissions but cannot eliminate a significant share of process emissions.