Evaluating the Potential of Solar Heat Production for the Food and Beverage Industry in Cyprus From 2024 to 2035

Abstract

The increasing heat demand in Cyprus' F&B industry presents an opportunity to leverage the abundant solar resources of the country as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels for industrial processes. To project the final energy consumption (FEC) of the national F&B industry from 2024 to 2035, the GDP (PPP) is used as an exogenous variable. A regression model is obtained with an adjusted correlation coefficient (R²) of 85.8%. For the projections, two economic growth scenarios are considered (positive, PEG, [+3%] and negative, NEG, [−1.5%]), combined with two scenarios for solar technology deployment (business-as-usual, BAU, [2%] and large, LTD, [20%]). Additionally, dynamic simulations in TRNSYS are conducted to estimate the annual yield of a model SHIP plant using Parabolic Trough Collectors. The modelled system, consisting of a total collector area of 660 m² and a thermal storage of 30 m³, yielded 4,320 MJ/m² of thermal energy. It was found that solar energy could uptake between 10% and 28% of the FEC for the NEG and PEG scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the solar heat potential ranged between 85 TJ and 444 TJ, which represents between 19,780 m² and 102,800 m² of solar collectors, respectively. Lastly, the projections also analyse the reduction of GHG emissions in 2035 compared with the baseline year (2023), where the NEG-LTD scenario achieved a reduction of 71%; meanwhile, the PEG-BAU scenario presented an increment of 25% in the GHG emissions.