NFDI4Energy Case-Study: Comparative Analysis and Visualisation of Long-Term Energy System Scenarios
Keywords:Energy system, Scenario comparison, Energy transition, Energy policy
Analysis and comparison of energy system scenarios provide valuable insights into potential transformation pathways. These studies on long-term developments can serve as new inputs for scientific research and decision-making processes, providing policymakers and other stakeholders with the necessary guidance to achieve sustainable energy systems. Generally, such scenarios are derived from energy system models which often seek a cost-optimal system design under a variety of boundary conditions, ranging from technical constraints to limits of land availability or a cap on overall greenhouse gas emissions . For Germany, several larger energy system scenario studies have been published, addressing the goal of carbon neutrality in 2045 as prescribed in the German climate protection act . These studies show differences in their specific methodology, sector representation, parameter settings or, more generally, overall scenario narratives. This diversity represents a challenge regarding the comparability of these studies, and consequently the ability to identify consensus and controversies in their findings. Often only limited access to data for parameter settings and scenario results is provided. Almost always the data is presented in different detail and formats, thus imposing further barriers for comparison and usability for the scientific community .
As one of the three use cases applied in Task Area 6 of the NFDI4Energy research project, we aim to address this challenge by providing transparent and open comparative information and data on long-term energy system scenarios. Selected scenarios for the transition towards a climate-neutral Germany will be annotated with terms form the Open Energy Ontology (OEO) . The comparison is building on an already existing database infrastructure from the Open Energy Platform (OEP) . Existing concepts for qualitative and quantitative comparisons will be used and improved to cover a wide range of existing energy system studies.
S. Pfenninger, A. Hawkes, and J. Keirstead, “Energy systems modeling for twenty-first century energy challenges,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 33, pp. 74– 86, 2014.
M. Ragwitz, A.Weidlich, D. Biermann, et al., Szenarien f ¨ur ein klimaneutrales Deutschland. Technologieumbau, Verbrauchsreduktion und Kohlenstoffmanagement, Schriftenreihe Energiesysteme der Zukunft, M¨unchen, 2023.
L. H¨ülk, B. M¨üller, M. Glauer, E. F¨örster, and B. Schachler, “Transparency, reproducibility, and quality of energy system analyses–a process to improve scientific work,” Energy strategy reviews, vol. 22, pp. 264–269, 2018.
M. Booshehri, L. Emele, S. Flügel, et al., “Introducing the open energy ontology: Enhancing data interpretation and interfacing in energy systems analysis,” Energy and AI, vol. 5, p. 100 074, 2021.
K. Reder, M. Stappel, C. Hofmann, et al., “Identification of user requirements for an energy scenario database,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, vol. 25, pp. 95–108, 2020.
H. F¨örster, M. Stappel, L. Emele, A. Siemons, and C. Winger, “Climate and energy scenario and projection comparison. Draft workflow & typology,” This work was supported by grant 03EI1035A-D (SIROP) from the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK.IIC5)., Dec. 2022. DOI: 10 . 5281 / zenodo . 7456286. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7456286.
D. S¨usser, H. Gaschnig, A. Ceglarz, V. Stavrakas, A. Flamos, and J. Lilliestam, “Better suited or just more complex? on the fit between user needs and modeller-driven improvements of energy system models,” Energy, vol. 239, p. 121 909, 2022.
L. G¨oke, J. Weibezahn, and C. von Hirschhausen, “A collective blueprint, not a crystal ball: How expectations and participation shape long-term energy scenarios,” Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 97, p. 102 957, 2023.
Conference Proceedings Volume
Copyright (c) 2023 Mirko Schäfer, Ramiz Qussous, Ludwig Hülk, Johan Lilliestam, Anke Weidlich
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Grant numbers 501865131